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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UCL Previews and Odds - 05/07/2024

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UCL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on TNT and truTV. The Boston Celtics host the Cleveland Cavaliers at 7:10 p.m. ET in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Celtics are an 11.5-point favorite, with the total set at 208.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The Oklahoma City Thunder play at home against the Dallas Mavericks at 9:40 p.m. ET in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series. The Thunder are a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 218.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games on ESPN. The Carolina Hurricanes travel to New York to play the Rangers at 7:10 p.m. ET in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Hurricanes are a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Dallas Stars are at home against the Colorado Avalanche at 9:40 p.m. ET in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series. Dallas is a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Texas Rangers play in Oakland against the A’s at 3:37 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Toronto Blue Jays as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Cincinnati against the Reds as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Baltimore Orioles visit the Washington Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Chicago White Sox at 6:50 p.m. ET as a -245 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The New York Yankees play at home against the Houston Astros on TBS at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 7:20 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Three more MLB games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Seattle Mariners as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Kansas City Royals are at home against the Milwaukee Brewers as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The St. Louis Cardinals host the New York Mets at 7:45 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 8.The San Francisco Giants play in Colorado against the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Miami Marlins at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -325 money-line favorite with a total of 8.The second leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League begins on Paramount+ at 3 PM ET. Paris Saint-Germain is at home against Borussia Dortmund as a -1 goal-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 3. 

American League Report

Earlier, I took a look at how things were shaping up in the National League. Now, I'll do the same for the American League. I've paid some extra attention to Seattle and Baltimore, a pair of teams which I discussed before the season. I've also included a long-shot Cy Young Award pick you might want to take a look at.  Orioles FlyingPrior to the start of the season, I stated that I was high on the Baltimore Orioles. At the time, they were 12-1 to win the World Series. (They're down to 9-1 now.) The Orioles have a 23-11 record and are currently battling the Yankees for the top spot in the American League East. There's a whole lot of baseball still to be played but they're currently looking in pretty good shape to make the playoffs. The offseason pickup of Corbin Burnes (see Cy Young odds below) has paid early dividends.  Mariner ReportSeattle was another team which I was big on prior to the season. I said that I thought that the Mariners would finish with more than their projected total of 86 wins. I also said that that I thought they had a solid shot at winning the division. At the time, the line was +300 for them to do so. So far, so good. The Mariners 19-15 record is fairy underwhelming. The best news, however, is that Houston is just 12-22. It's too early to count out the Astros but it sure is nice to have an early 7-game lead on them. The Seattle pitching remains excellent. Check out the Cy Young odds below and you'll find three of the Mariner starters currently in the running for the best pitcher in the American League.  Playoff PictureThings are less clear in the American League than they are in the National League. At least, that's the way that I see it. Either the Yankees or the Orioles should win the East. The one which doesn't will likely earn a Wildcard spot. Loaded as always, the other three teams in the division, Toronto, Boston and Tampa all also remain hopeful for a Wildcard spot. The Central and the West are up for grabs. The Guardians and Twins are the front-runners in the Central but the Royals and Tigers aren't far behind. The only thing for certain is that the White Sox are out of the running. They're terrible. The Mariners and Rangers are fighting for first in the West. The Astros got off to a terrible start but they've still got the talent to turn things around. The A's have been surprisingly competitive but won't be able to keep it up. The Angels are lousy. So, we've got the Yankees and Orioles likely to make it and 10 other teams who will be fighting it out for the other four playoff spots. That should make for an exciting summer! Cy Young OddsThe American League Cy Young field is wide open. Burnes and Skubal are the front-runners for a reason. But if looking for a long-shot, at +2200, Berrios looks pretty good. He's 4-2 with a 1.44 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. That's the best ERA in baseball, entering his start on Tuesday May 7th. The Jays haven't really played up to their potential yet either. If they start swinging the bats better, Berrios may benefit. Here are the current top 10 candidates, the odds courtesy of Draft Kings. Skubal +250 Burnes +400Ragans +900Lopez +1500Gilbert +1500Kirby +1600Castillo +1800Ryan +2000Berrios +2200Gausman +2500

N.L. Playoff Picture + World Series Longshot Future

Most teams have now played around 35 of 162 games. Obviously, there's still a long way to go. Yet, we're already getting a good idea about which teams are likely to contend for the postseason and which ones aren't. The playoff picture in the National League is particularly clear for this point of the season. I've taken a closer look below. I've also included a long-shot team which I feel has a good chance at sneaking into the postseason and potentially making some noise when it gets there. Understanding the FormatTwelve teams make the playoffs, six from each league. That includes the three division winners and three Wildcard teams, non-divisional winners with the three best records. Once the postseason starts, the #1 and #2 seeds receive a bye in the Wildcard Round. The #3 seed, the division winner with the worst record, hosts the #6 seed. The #4 seed hosts the #5 seed. The Wildcard Round consists of a 3-game series. To ensure that the top team doesn't face another division winner, in the Division Round, the #1 seed faces the winner of the #4 vs. #5 series. The #2 sees faces the winner of the #3 vs. #6 series. Can A Wildcard Team Win The World Series?Last year, the Texas Rangers defeated Arizona in the World Series. Both teams were Wildcard entrants. Texas was the #5 seed in the American League while Arizona was the #6 seed in the National League. That wasn't the first time that a Wildcard team won it all. In fact, it happens with relative regularity. The Marlins won out of a Wildcard spot  in 1997 and 2003. The Angels did so in 2002. The Red Sox accomplished the feat in 2004; the Cardinals, in 2011; the Giants, in 2014 and the Nationals, in 2019. Current NL Playoff ProjectionsThe Dodgers, Braves and Phillies are all very likely to make the playoffs. It currently appears probable that either the Cubs or the Brewers will win the NL Central. There's a good chance that the other will earn a Wildcard spot. So, that's five of the six NL playoff teams right here. The final spot figures to include one of the following six teams: St. Louis, San Diego, New York, Cincinnati, Arizona or San Francisco. Of the six, the Padres currently have the best chance of making the playoffs. FanGraphs has them at 48%. The other five are all less than 30%. San Diego at 70-1 To Win the World SeriesLoaded with high-priced talent, the Padres were a popular pick to win the World Series last year. Things didn't go as planned. They lost a few pieces this season. Most assume that they missed their chance. However, the team and lineup is still stacked. Dylan Cease was a great offseason acquisition and the recent trade for Luis Arraez immediately made them better. They could use another top level starter but should be able to acquire one at the trade deadline. Draft Kings currently has the Padres at +7000 to win the World Series. I've explained that they have a reasonably good chance to make the playoffs. I've also demonstrated that teams can go the distance out of the WC spot. If you're looking for a long-shot to back for the World Series, take a look at the San Diego Padres!

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