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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/21/2024

The Tuesday sports card features NBA and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Boston Celtics host the Indiana Pacers on ESPN and ESPN2 at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Celtics won for the seventh time in their last eight games with a 113-98 victory against Cleveland as a 15.5-point favorite last Wednesday in the fifth game of that series. The Pacers won for the fourth time in the last five games with their 130-109 upset victory as a 2.5-point underdog in New York against the Knicks on Sunday in Game 7 of that series. Boston is a 9.5-point favorite with the total set at 221 (all odds from DraftKings).The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 1 game on its schedule. The Cleveland Guardians play at home against the New York Mets at 6:10 p.m. ET. The Guardians turn to Carlos Carrasco to take the mound to pitch against the Mets’ Adrian Houser. Cleveland is a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Four more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:45 p.m. ET. The San Diego Padres travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds. Joe Musgrove takes the ball for the Padres to face Andrew Abbott for the Reds. San Diego is a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The San Francisco Giants play in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. The Giants tap Logan Webb to battle against the Pirates’ Martin Perez. San Francisco is a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Texas Rangers. Ranger Suarez takes the hill for the Phillies to go against Jon Gray for the Ranges. Philadelphia is a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Milwaukee Brewers play in Miami against the Marlins. the Brewers send out Robert Gasser to duel against Trevor Rogers for the Marlins. Milwaukee is a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins are in Washington to play the Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET. Joe Ryan gets the start for the Twins to face Patrick Corbin for the Nationals. Minnesota is a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox at 6:50 p.m. ET. The Rays tap Zack Littell to battle against Cooper Criswell. Tampa Bay is a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Yankees play at home against the Seattle Mariners at 7:05 p.m. ET. Clarke Schmidt takes the ball for the Yankees to face Bryan Woo for the Mariners. New York is a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Chicago White Sox at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays send out Yusei Kikuchi to face the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet. Toronto is a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Two more MLB games begin at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Kansas City Royals host the Detroit Tigers. Alex Marsh takes the ball for the Royals to go against Casey Mike for the Tigers. Kansas City is a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Atlanta Braves visit Chicago to play the Cubs on TBS. The Braves send out Charlie Morton to pitch against the Cubs’ Javier Assad. Atlanta is a -125 money-line road favorite. The Baltimore Orioles play in St. Louis against the Cardinals at 7:45 p.m. ET. Kyle Bradish gets the start for the Orioles to duel against Lance Lynn for the Cardinals. Baltimore is a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Houston Astros play at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Astros turn to Cristian Javier to battle against the Angels’ Griffin Canning. Houston is a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Oakland A’s are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 9:40 p.m. ET. Aaron Brooks gets the ball for the A’s to face Cal Quantrill for the Rockies. Oakland is a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Dodgers send out Gavin Stone to face the Diamondbacks’ Brandon Pfaadt. Los Angeles is a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5.

5 Starting Pitchers Who Should Regress- Sell High?

We are about two months into the season. Now is a good time to look at starting pitchers and who is overachieving based on both expectations and advanced metrics. A deep dive into the profile of these pitchers can give some great perspective. Here are five starters who are likely to struggle to keep on the same path they are on so far this season. Jose Berrios (2.82 ERA, 4.68 FIP, and 4.19 SIERA) Berrios is bottom 15 in the majors in hard hits allowed. His batted ball profiles consistently look poor. Berrios has allowed just a .229 batting average on balls in play so far this season despite giving up a lot of hard hit balls. He has also stranded 88.6% of runners on base thus far this year. Berrios isn’t a new pitcher. He is a veteran who isn’t bad, but he isn’t nearly as good as he looks right now,. Seth Lugo (1.79 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and 3.61 SIERA) Seth Lugo is 34.5 years old. He isn’t some youngster who is breaking out. He is a crafty veteran who has good control and a really good curveball. He has stranded a ridiculous 90.1% runners on base this season. Lugo has pitched really well in his most recent outings, but he has also had the good fortune of going against some of the worst offenses in the majors.  Carlos Rodon (3.27 ERA, 4.48 FIP, and 3.88 SIERA) Rodon is a quality pitcher so I’m not terrible anxious to sell high on him. His advanced metrics definitely suggests his ERA should be going up though. Rodon is stranding 85.9% of runners on base. Rodon is a tricky handicap because he can be absolutely lights out, but he also has the potential to get hit around and give up a big inning at any time.  Jordan Hicks (2.38 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 4.10 SIERA) Hicks has been one of the best stories in baseball. His transition from the closer role to a very good starter has been a ton of fun. Hicks is one to keep watching closely since he does carry very low home run rates and he has great movement on his pitches. Can he handle the huge jump in workload as we get later in the season though? Trevor Williams (2.35 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and 4.23 SIERA) Williams is 32 years old and he has consistently been an average or below average starting pitcher. The last two years he has allowed 1.20 and 2.12 home runs per nine innings pitched. So far this year he has allowed a mind boggling low 0.20 home runs per nine innings pitched. His BABIP allowed is only .267 too. Williams doesn’t have swing and miss stuff. He is pitching above his head right now, and I think he is a sell high candidate. 

Early MLB MVP Value - By ASA

American League Salvador Perez (+6000) .337 avg/ 8HR/ 37RBIEven at the ripe age of 34, Salvador Perez is off to a smoking hot start in 2024. He is 3rd in RBI’s in the AL, and is a huge reason the Royals are well above .500 for the first time in what seems like an eternity. Perez is an everyday player, and in 2021 he led all of MLB in RBIs (121) while hitting 48 homers, missing only one single game that year. The past 3 AL MVP winners have averaged at least .290 and hit in 109 RBIs, leaving plenty of room for the Royals catcher who is on pace to surpass both easily. Perez is lacking in the home run category, but only trails the MLB leader by seven, and has put up massive home run numbers in the past. Kansas City’s veteran could be right in the MVP mix come September and his numbers warrant a small investment. Adolis Garcia (+6500) .251 avg/ 11HR/ 35RBI Adolis Garcia was the star of the postseason last year, putting the Rangers on his back, delivering in every big moment needed. His previous three regular seasons have been extremely consistent, hitting right about .250, 30HRs, and 100RBIs. With his notoriety now through the roof, a slight jump in his fourth year numbers could result in some individual hardwear. If you average Garcia’s 2023 postseason numbers over a year, you get 86 homers and 237 ribbies. Obviously unsustainable during a year but it's a glimpse at his ceiling when playing the best pitchers in the biggest moments. Texas will need all Garcia has to offer to get into the playoffs and defend their Championship.   National League Bryce Harper (+1800) .273 avg/ 10HR/ 35RBIMookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani are rightfully the two heaviest favorites for NL MVP, having won three of the past 6 between them. Yet, the Phillies have 2 time MVP Bryce Harper leading them to the current best record in baseball. Harper's average is down, but his HRs are right on pace (38) to match his two MVP seasons while his RBI pace would smash his MVP seasons. Harper is a huge name, coupled with Philly being the possible top seed in the NL, there is value elsewhere than the Dodgers in the MVP race.    Elly De La Cruz (+3600) .256 avg/ 9HR/ 22RBI Cincinnati is last in the NL Central but Elly De La Cruz is a walking highlight at only 22 years old. His slugging numbers are up from his first action in 2023, almost already surpassing his home run total from 98 games last year. De La Cruz has all the tools needed to be an MVP, it is just a matter of time when he puts it all together. The NL MVP odds are very top heavy and only a big name with superstar potential could get into the conversation down the stretch. The Reds young stud will need to carry the offensive load in order to keep their season alive past summer, and if so, may arrive early to the MLB elites list.

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