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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and MLB Previews and Odds - 03/29/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Mar 29, 2024

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association has 12 games on its docket. Four NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Golden State Warriors travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets as a 12-point road favorite, with the total set at 216.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Indiana Pacers host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 241. The Los Angeles Clippers play in Orlando against the Magic as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 210. The Washington Wizards play at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 227.5. Two NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Chicago Bulls are in Brooklyn to play the Nets as a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 214.5. The Cleveland Cavaliers are at home against the Philadelphia 76ers as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 212.5. Three more NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Miami Heat host the Portland Trail Blazers as a 14-point favorite with a total of 208.5. The Phoenix Suns visit Oklahoma City to play the Thunder as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The New York Knicks play in San Antonio as a 10-point road favorite with a total of 212. The Denver Nuggets play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 212. The Houston Rockets play in Utah against the Jazz as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 230. The Sacramento Kings are at home against the Dallas Mavericks at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 230. The National Hockey League has one game on its slate. The New Jersey Devils are in Buffalo to play the Sabres as a -122 money-line road favor with a total of 6. The college basketball schedule has the first four games in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament.The college basketball schedule has the final four games in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament. Marquette battles North Carolina State on CBS at 7:09 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 150. Purdue plays Gonzaga on TBS at 7:39 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 154.5. Houston challenges Duke on CBS at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 134.5. Tennessee goes against Creighton on TBS at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 144. The Friday card in Major League Baseball has ten games on its schedule. The New York Mets host the Milwaukee Brewers at 1:40 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Atlanta Braves visit Philadelphia to play the Phillies at 3:05 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.The Miami Marlins are at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Four more games throw out the first pitch at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Colorado Rockies as a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Cleveland Guardians play at Oakland against the A’s as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Seattle Mariners are at home against the Boston Red Sox as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the St. Louis Cardinals as a -238 money-line favorite with a total of 9.

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Sneaky NBA Longshot to Win the West

by ASA, Inc.

Thursday, Mar 28, 2024

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS +2500 to win the WEST We have been in the Sports Betting Industry since the late 1980’s and over that span of time we have come up with a few betting angles that are tried and true when it comes to predicting an NBA Champion. We will bring you that article and NBA Finals predictions as soon as the playoff field is set. In the meantime, we have a Western Conference prediction that offers a nice return on your investment if/when it hits. We will get into the metrics at a later date, but the core premise is you must rank top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency to be crowned NBA Champion. There are a few outliers but it’s a great starting point to forecast the future NBA Titleholder. We will use some of that logic in our assumption on who is a great longshot in the West. The New Orleans Pelicans are lurking in the middle of the pack at 5th in the Western Conference and only trail the Clippers by 1-game for the 4th seed and home court in the first round of the playoffs. Literally nobody is talking about the Pelicans who have the 10th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.178-points per possession and the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.125PPP.  Denver and Oklahoma City are the only other teams in the West that can boast being in the top 10 in both efficiency categories. The Pelicans are 26-19 SU against other Western Conference foes this season with an average scoring differential of +3.7PPG. They’ve also proven they can win on the road, which is critical in the playoffs, with a 24-13 SU road record with an average +/- of +6.3PPG. The top seeds in the West currently are Denver, Minnesota, Oklahoma City and they could all face tough first round opponents as the Suns, Mavericks, Kings, Warriors and the Lakers are all sitting in the bottom half of the Conference standings as of this writing. New Orleans is 7-7 SU versus the other 4 teams currently ahead of them in the West and certainly capable of beating any of those contenders in a series. We feel this Pelicans team is currently undervalued at +2500 to win the West and will make a small investment on New Orleans.

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MLB 2024: NL Central Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Mar 28, 2024

NL Central Division Preview for MLB 2024First number is the estimated projected wins per sportsbook odds while the second number is last season’s win total. This is followed by quick information on each team that likely impacts their season.Chicago Cubs – 84.5 projected wins. Last season 83 wins. The pickup of Shota Imanaga could be big for this rotation. I also like the managerial change to Craig Counsell. This team has some good experience on the roster too so they are built well to battle it out with the Reds and Cardinals, most likely, for the NL Central title. But this will be a tricky division with a lot of mediocrity throughout. Cincinnati Reds – 81.5 projected wins. Last season 82 wins. One of the differences between the Reds and Cubs is that Cincinnati is a younger team and perhaps that lack of experience will hold them back a little. They also already have some injury and suspension issues entering the new season and a slower start to the season could be tough to bounce back from. Some question marks in this rotation and they have some bullpen injuries opening the season up too. I think .500-type season is likely here. The lineup just does not have enough proven guys. Milwaukee Brewers – 77.5 projected wins. Last season 92 wins. As you can see by those numbers, big dropoff expected for Milwaukee this season. Counsell now managing the Cubs. Burnes is now pitching for the Orioles! Also Brandon Woodruff is out for the year after having surgery. He and Burnes are two key cogs now gone from this rotation. The Brewers also will be without their closer Devin Williams for the first half of the season most likely. All these pitching issues and playing in a competitive division where it seems any team could win it. This is going to be a tough year for Milwaukee. Pittsburgh Pirates – 75.5 projected wins. Last season 76 wins. Pirates are projected to have a season similar to last year. Pittsburgh could surprise though, at least in terms of this division. They have a decent looking lineup and could be a decent hitting team this season if healthy. I am concerned about this pitching rotation here and this could be a team to keep an eye on for overs. However, though the rotation is a concern, this is a solid bullpen including a top closer in David Bednar plus Arnoldis Chapman as the set-up man! St Louis Cardinals – 84.5 projected wins. Last season 71 wins. This lineup looks quite solid and there is a reason the books are forecasting improvement here. St Louis should have been better last season but had some strange metrics to their season and the ball should bounce their way more in 2024. Sonny Gray should be back in mid-April to lead this rotation and they have Mikolas but other guys are question marks including what do Lyles and Gibson still have left in the tank? The bullpen has a lot of changes too and overall the pitching struggled last season which is uncharacteristic for St Louis. But again it is a concern this season. This could be another team to keep an eye on for overs during this season. 

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