Archive for May, 2014

Note: These are rules of thumb which apply 90-99% of the time (or so). Some of them have a few or even many exceptions and nuances to consider. I do believe, however, that if every manager followed these religiously, even without employing any exceptions or considering any of the nuances, that he would be much better off than the status quo. There are also many other suggestions, commandments, and considerations that I would use, that are not included in this list.

1)      Though shalt never use individual batter/pitcher matchups, recent batter or pitcher stats, or even seasonal batter or pitcher stats. Ever. The only thing that this organization uses are projections based on long-term performance. You will use those constantly.

2)      Thou shalt never, ever use batting average again. wOBA is your new BA. Learn how to construct it and learn what it means.

3)      Thou shalt be given and thou shalt use the following batter/pitcher matchups every game: Each batter’s projection versus each pitcher. They include platoon considerations. Those numbers will be used for all your personnel decisions. They are your new “index cards.”

4)      Thou shalt never issue another IBB again, other than obvious late and close-game situations.

5)      Thou shalt instruct your batters whether to sacrifice bunt or not, in all sacrifice situations, based on a “commit line.” If the defense plays in front of that line, thy batters will hit away. If they play behind the line, thy batters will bunt. If they are at the commit line, they may do as they please. Each batter will have his own commit line against each pitcher. Some batters will never bunt.

6)      Thou shalt never sacrifice with runners at first and third, even with a pitcher at bat. You may squeeze if you want. With 1 out and a runner on 1st only your worst hitting pitchers will bunt.

7)      Thou shalt keep thy starter in or remove him based on two things and two things only: One, his pitch count, and two, the number of times he has faced the order. Remember that ALL pitchers lose 1/3 of a run in ERA each time through the order, regardless of how they are pitching thus far.

8)      Thou shalt remove thy starter for a pinch hitter in a high leverage situation if he is facing the order for the 3rd time or more, regardless of how he is pitching.

9)      Speaking of leverage, thou shalt be given a leverage chart with score, inning, runners, and outs. Use it!

10)   Thou shalt, if at all possible, use thy best pitchers in high leverage situations and thy worst pitchers in low leverage situations, regardless of the score or inning.  Remember that “best” and “worst” are based on your new “index cards” (batter v. pitcher projections) or your chart which contains each pitcher’s generic projection. It is never based on how they did yesterday, last week, or even the entire season. Thou sometimes may use “specialty” pitchers, such as when a GDP or a K are at a premium.

11)   Thou shalt be given a chart for every base runner and several of the most common inning, out, and score situations. There will be a number next to each player’s name for each situation. If the pitcher’s time home plus the catcher’s pop time are less than that number, thy runner will not steal. If it is greater, thy runner may steal. No runner shall steal second base with a lefty pitcher on the mound.

12)   Thou shalt not let thy heart be troubled by the outcome of your decisions. No one who works for this team will ever question your decision based on the outcome. Each decision you make is either right, wrong, or a toss-up, before we know, and regardless of, the outcome.

13)   Thou shalt be held responsible for your decisions, also regardless of the outcome. If your decisions are contrary to what we believe as an organization, we would like to hear your explanation and we will discuss it with you. However, you are expected to make the right decisions at all times, based on the beliefs and philosophies of the organization. We don’t care what the fans or the media think.  We will take care of that. We will all make sure that our players are on the same page as we are.

14)   Finally, thou shalt know that we respect and admire your leadership and motivational skills. That is one of the reasons we hired you. However, if you are not on board with our decision-making processes and willing to employ them at all times, please find yourself another team to manage.