Archive for August, 2016

Let me explain game theory wrt sac bunting using tonight’s CLE game as an example. Bottom of the 10th, leadoff batter on first, Gimenez is up. He is a very weak batter with little power or on-base skills, and the announcers say, “You would expect him to be bunting.” He clearly is.

Now, in general, to determine whether to bunt or not, you estimate the win expectancies (WE) based on the frequencies of the various outcomes of the bunt, versus the frequencies of the various outcomes of swinging away. Since, for a position player, those two final numbers are usually close, even in late tied-game situations, the correct decision usually hinges on: On the swing side, whether the batter is a good hitter or not, and his expected GDP rate. On the bunt side, how good of a sac bunter is he and how fast is he (which affect the single and ROE frequencies, which are an important part of the bunt WE)?

Gimenez is a terrible hitter which favors the bunt attempt but he is also not a good bunter and slow which favors hitting away. So the WE’s are probably somewhat close.

One thing that affects the WE for both bunting and swinging, of course, is where the third baseman plays before the pitch is thrown. Now, in this game, it was obvious that Gimenez was bunting all the way and everyone seemed fine with that. I think the announcers and probably everyone would have been shocked if he didn’t (we’ll ignore the count completely for this discussion – the decision to bunt or not clearly can change with it).

The announcers also said, “Sano is playing pretty far back for a bunt.” He was playing just on the dirt I think, which is pretty much “in between when expecting a bunt.” So it did seem like he was not playing up enough.

So what happens if he moves up a little? Maybe now it is correct to NOT bunt because the more he plays in, the lower the WE for a bunt and the higher the WE for hitting away! So maybe he shouldn’t play up more (the assumption is that if he is bunting, then the closer he plays, the better). Maybe then the batter will hit away and correctly so, which is now better for the offense than bunting with the third baseman playing only half way. Or maybe if he plays up more, the bunt is still correct but less so than with him playing back, in which case he SHOULD play up more.

So what is supposed to happen? Where is the third baseman supposed to play and what does the batter do? There is one answer and one answer only. How many managers and coaches do you think know the answer (they should)?

The third baseman is supposed to play all the way back “for starters” in his own mind, such that it is clearly correct for the batter to bunt. Now he knows he should play in a little more. So in his mind again, he plays up just a tad bit.

Now is it still correct for the batter to bunt? IOW, is the bunt WE higher than the swing WE given where the third baseman is playing? If it is, of course he is supposed to move up just a little more (in his head).

When does he stop? He stops of course when the WE from bunting is exactly the same as the WE from swinging. Where that is completely depends on those things I talked about before, like the hitting and bunting prowess of the batter, his speed, and even the pitcher himself.

What if he keeps moving up in his mind and the WE from bunting is always higher than hitting, like with most pitchers at the plate with no outs? Then the 3B simply plays in as far as he can, assuming that the batter is bunting 100%.

So in our example, if Sano is indeed playing at the correct depth which maybe he was and maybe he wasn’t, then the WE from bunting and hitting must be exactly the same, in which case, what does the batter do? It doesn’t matter, obviously! He can do whatever he wants, as long as the 3B is playing correctly.

So in a bunt situation like this, assuming that the 3B (and other fielders if applicable) is playing reasonably correctly, it NEVER matters what the batter does. That should be the case in every single potential sac bunt situation you see in a baseball game. It NEVER matters what the batter does. Either bunting or not are equally “correct.” They result in exactly the same WE.

The only exceptions (which do occur) are when the WE from bunting is always higher than swinging when the 3B is playing all the way up (a poor hitter and/or exceptional bunter) OR the WE from swinging is always higher even when the 3B is playing completely back (a good or great hitter and/or poor bunter).

So unless you see the 3B playing all the way in or all the way back and they are playing reasonably optimally it NEVER matters what the batter does. Bunt or not bunt and the win expectancy is exactly the same! And if the 3rd baseman plays all the way in or all the way back and is playing optimally, then it is always correct for the batter to bunt or not bunt 100% of the time.

I won’t go into this too much because the post assumed that the defense was playing optimally, i.e. it was in a “Nash Equilibrium” (as I explained, it is playing in a position such that the WE for bunting and swinging are exactly equal) or it was correctly playing all the way in (the WE for bunting is still equal to or great than for swinging) or all the way back (the WE for swinging is >= that of bunting), but if the defense is NOT playing optimally, then the batter MUST bunt or swing away 100% of the time.

This is critical and amazingly there is not ONE manager or coach in MLB that understands it and thus correctly utilizes a correct bunt strategy or bunt defense.

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