Archive for April, 2017

There’s been some discussion lately on Twitter about the sacrifice bunt. Of course it is used very little anymore in MLB other than with pitchers at the plate. I’ll spare you the numbers. If you want to verify that, you can look it up on the interweb. The reason it’s not used anymore is not because it was or is a bad strategy. It’s simply because there is no point in sac bunting in most cases. I’ve written about why before on this blog and on other sabermetric sites. It has to do with game theory. I’ll briefly explain it again along with some other things. This is mostly a copy and paste from my recent tweets on the subject.

First, the notion that you can analyze the efficacy (or anything really) about a sac bunt attempt by looking at what happens (say, the RE or WE) after an out and a runner advance is ridiculous. For some reason sabermetricians did that reflexively for a long time ever since Palmer and Thorn wrote The Hidden Game and concluded (wrongly) that the sac bunt was a terrible strategy in most cases. What they meant was that advancing the runner in exchange for an out is a terrible strategy in most cases, which it is. But again, EVERYONE knows that that isn’t the only thing that happens when a batter attempts to bunt. That’s not a shock. We all know that the batter can reach base on a single or an error, he can strike out, hit into a force or DP, pop out, or even walk. We obviously have to know  how often those things occur on a bunt attempt to have any chance to figure out whether a bunt might increase, decrease or not change the RE or WE, compared to hitting away. Why Palmer and Thorn or anyone else ever thought that looking at the RE or WE after something that occurs less than half the time on a bunt attempt (yeah, on the average an out and runner advance occurs around 47% of the time) could answer the question of whether a sac bunt might be a good play or not, is a mystery to me. Then again, there are probably plenty of stupid things we’re saying and doing now with respect to baseball analysis that we’ll be laughing or crying about in the future, so I don’t mean that literally.

What I am truly in disbelief about is that there are STILL saber-oriented writers and pundits who talk about the sac bunt attempt as if all that ever happens is an out and a runner advance. That’s indefensible. For cripes sake I wrote all about this in The Book 12 years ago. I have thoroughly debunked the idea that “bunts are bad because they considerably reduce the RE or WE.” They don’t. This is not controversial. It never was. It was kind of a, “Shit I don’t know why I didn’t realize that,” moment. If you still look at bunt attempts as an out and a runner advance instead of as an amalgam of all kinds of different results, you have no excuse. You are either profoundly ignorant, stubborn, or both. (I’ll give the casual fan a pass).

Anyway, without further ado, here is a summary of some of what I wrote in The Book 12 years ago about the sac bunt, and what I just obnoxiously tweeted in 36 or so separate tweets:

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Someone asked me to post my 2017 W/L projections for each team. I basically added up the run values of my individual projections, using Fangraphs projected playing time for every player, as of around March 15.

I did use the actual schedule for a “strength of opponent” adjustment. I didn’t add anything additional for injuries, chances of each team making roster adjustments at trade deadline or otherwise, managerial skill, etc. I didn’t try and simulate lineups or anything like that. Plus, these are based on my preliminary projections without incorporating any Statcast or pitch F/X data. Also, these kinds of projections tend to regress toward a mean of .500 for all teams. That’s because bad teams tend to weed out bad players and otherwise improve, and injuries don’t hurt them much – in some cases improving them. And good teams tend to be hurt more by injuries (and I don’t think the depth charts I use account enough for chance of injury). As well, if good teams are not contending at the deadline, they tend to trade their good players.

So take these for what they are worth.

team wins div wc div+wc ds lcs ws
 

NL EAST

was 89 0.499 0.097 0.597 0.257 0.117 0.048
nyn 88 0.437 0.114 0.55 0.239 0.106 0.044
mia 78 0.046 0.02 0.066 0.024 0.01 0.004
phi 72 0.007 0.002 0.009 0.003 0.001 0
atl 72 0.011 0.004 0.014 0.006 0.002 0.001
 

NL Central

chn 100 0.934 0.044 0.978 0.56 0.303 0.146
sln 86 0.049 0.273 0.322 0.137 0.059 0.022
pit 82 0.017 0.129 0.146 0.056 0.023 0.008
cin 67 0 0.001 0.001 0 0 0
mil 61 0 0 0 0 0 0
 

NL WEST

lan 102 0.961 0.025 0.987 0.591 0.327 0.164
sfn 85 0.03 0.214 0.245 0.098 0.041 0.016
col 78 0.005 0.047 0.052 0.018 0.007 0.003
ari 77 0.003 0.03 0.033 0.011 0.004 0.002
sdn 66 0 0 0 0 0 0
 

AL EAST

tor 87 0.34 0.114 0.455 0.229 0.118 0.061
bos 87 0.359 0.129 0.487 0.238 0.117 0.064
tba 83 0.15 0.077 0.227 0.105 0.051 0.027
bal 81 0.099 0.056 0.155 0.071 0.032 0.014
nya 79 0.053 0.035 0.088 0.038 0.018 0.008
 

AL CENTRAL

cle 93 0.861 0.027 0.888 0.471 0.254 0.146
det 82 0.097 0.077 0.174 0.076 0.033 0.016
min 76 0.021 0.015 0.036 0.014 0.005 0.002
kca 75 0.02 0.014 0.033 0.014 0.005 0.003
cha 68 0.001 0.001 0.002 0 0 0
 

AL WEST

hou 91 0.541 0.13 0.671 0.362 0.188 0.11
sea 86 0.228 0.155 0.383 0.192 0.09 0.047
ala 84 0.181 0.12 0.301 0.146 0.071 0.036
tex 80 0.044 0.042 0.086 0.038 0.017 0.008
oak 73 0.006 0.007 0.014 0.006 0.002 0.001