Someone asked me to post my 2017 W/L projections for each team. I basically added up the run values of my individual projections, using Fangraphs projected playing time for every player, as of around March 15.
I did use the actual schedule for a “strength of opponent” adjustment. I didn’t add anything additional for injuries, chances of each team making roster adjustments at trade deadline or otherwise, managerial skill, etc. I didn’t try and simulate lineups or anything like that. Plus, these are based on my preliminary projections without incorporating any Statcast or pitch F/X data. Also, these kinds of projections tend to regress toward a mean of .500 for all teams. That’s because bad teams tend to weed out bad players and otherwise improve, and injuries don’t hurt them much – in some cases improving them. And good teams tend to be hurt more by injuries (and I don’t think the depth charts I use account enough for chance of injury). As well, if good teams are not contending at the deadline, they tend to trade their good players.
So take these for what they are worth.