can i do it please help. ]]>

So, the way I approached it is, I looked at Giles 2017 performance, and he gave up runs in 6 of the 7 appearances! From 2014-2017, however, he only gave up runs in 50 out of his 245 appearances, or 20% of his appearances. What are the odds of someone who only gave up runs 20% of his appearances suddenly giving up runs in 6 of 7 appearances? Seems like low odds, but I’m not sure what/if a statistical method can work that out, and perhaps the noise from just a sample of 7 could result in wide gyrations like this. Or is that a wrong way to look at this?

I get that it’s extremely small sample size, only 40 batters faced, way below the thresholds for when peripherals stabilizes. But is there any way to use the data regarding his prior appearances in the regular season, and computing the odds of him randomly giving up runs in 7 appearances? Would it be as simple as taking his 245 appearances, slap them into a random number selection process, and simulate 1,000,000 different 7 game results? Is there better ways? Or, again, is this the wrong way to approach it?

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