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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/30/2024

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with three games. The New York Knicks host the Philadelphia 76ers on TNT at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite, with the total set at 202 (all odds from DraftKings). The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the Orlando Magic on NBA TV at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 199.5. The Indiana Pacers travel to Milwaukee to play the Bucks on TNT at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 214.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games. The Boston Bruins are at home against the Toronto Maple Leafs on ESPN at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes host the New York Islanders on TBS at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -258 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche play in Winnipeg against the Jets on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks play at home against the Nashville Predators on TBS at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first game of their doubleheader at 3:40 p.m. ET as a -128 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees are in Baltimore to play the Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies. The Tigers play at home against the Cardinals in the second game of their doubleheader as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Kansas City Royals at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Two more MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The New York Mets host the Chicago Cubs as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Francisco Giants visit the Boston Red Sox as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games begin at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins play in Chicago against the White Sox as a -166 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Milwaukee to play against the Brewers. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Washington Nationals at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Houston Astros are at home against the Cleveland Browns at 8:10 p.m. ET on FS1 as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Four games conclude the MLB card at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves play in Seattle to play the Mariners as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Arizona to play the Diamondbacks as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates visit Oakland to play the A’s as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Cincinnati Reds play in San Diego against the Padres.

Value Betting: Home Factoring Adjustments

Though I am known for betting a lot of totals and underdogs, when it comes to spread sports in particular, of course there are plenty of opportunities to bet favorites when the number and/or price is right and the value is there. One of the keys about favorites is whether or not the home court or home field or home ice or home pitch is properly factored and how that pertains to the team you are wanting to bet. The reason this can be a key is that generally the extra value added to the home team when lines are made is quite standard. You can get value in betting on or against a home favorite when you factor this in. Since the factor for the home team is generally standard but teams do perform differently than others when at home you get some value spots.  This is because some are exceptional and have a huge home edge while others are sometimes even better on the road or at least just as good away from home compared to as a host. The value can be had in looking for extra line variations based on this home/road value generated aspect. I always do my first handicapping based on situational aspects. But then, after finding the games I want to dive further into, I always factor in the home/road dichotomy of each match-up and how that creates value. The ones with the biggest variations from the mean are almost always the ones that make the final cut for me. So sometimes I might be backing the undervalued home fave or fading an overvalued home team. The key here is evaluating, for example, should this NFL home team be given the 3 points extra they are being given under the circumstances. Perhaps a team does not deserve anything extra because they are lousy at home. Or maybe they are ultra strong at home and one could argue the line should have been bolstered by 5 points at home. These are the keys to line value when you like something already but also are happy to see the line factoring on the home team is working in your favor as well! This can be a key to extra betting value throughout a season. 

Money Line Options in Spread Sports

Money Line Options in Spread SportsEven In spread sports there can be cases where money line utilization makes sense. First off, I recommend always doing your handicapping as you normally would. For me, that is situational based. However, once you have done that then look at the value of utilizing the money line. This is particularly true of the games with smaller spreads of course as large money lines present too much risk. Lets say you wrapped uo your handicapping and had decided on two bets. In the first one, the road dog has no discernible variation either way but the home fave does and it is the home team that you were wanting to play. Lets say the home team is 8-2 SU last 10 games but 3 of the 8 wins were by 3 or less points. The line on this game is -4 let's say. So in the example above, in theory, if you lay the -4 you have a 50-50 chance of winning the bet because only 5 of their last 10 games have resulted in a win by more than 3 points. But the money line is, in theory, an 8-2 or 80 percent win rate per the SU 8-2 record used in this example. Now, let's say the money line is -175. 8 wins is 800 in winnings and 2 losses equate to 350 in defeats. As you can see, that is much better odds than 50-50. In a case like this, laying the money line is not only worth a look, it seems like a great option. In another example let's say you are looking at a dog that is only 3-7 last 10 games but 4 of the 7 losses by 5 or less points. The line on this game lets say is 5.5 and the money line is +200 on the dog. So if you bet the dog in 10 games at this value in theory you are looking at +600 in wins but -700 in losses. A losing proposition. Conversely, on the spread you would be looking at 7 wins (3 outright and 4 via the spread) and that equates to +700 while the 3 losses would cost you -330. This is something strong to get behind.  So in this case the spread makes more sense! In summary, you can see that digging deeper can often help you hone in on additional value when looking for the best way to put the odds in your favor on a game you like. Keep this in mind when you are considering money line plays - whether dog or fave - as there are often cases where a money line makes the most sense. After all, the biggest key to sports betting is putting the odds in your favor!

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