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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/27/2024

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with four games. The Orlando Magic host the Cleveland Cavaliers on TNT at 1:00 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite, with the total set at 201.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to New Orleans to play the Pelicans on TNT at 3:40 p.m. ET as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 208.5. The Boston Celtics play in Miami against the Heat on TNT at 6:10 p.m. ET as a 9-point road favorite with a total of 202.5. The Denver Nuggets are in Los Angeles to play the Lakers on ABC at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 217.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games on TBS and truTV. The Carolina Hurricanes visit New York to play the Islanders at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Florida Panthers play in Tampa Bay against the Lightning at 5:10 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Boston Bruins at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Vegas Golden Knights are at home against the Dallas Stars at 10:40 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Saturday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Toronto to play the Blue Jays at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Baltimore Orioles host the Oakland A’s as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two games are featured on Fox regional coverage. The St. Louis Cardinals travel to New York to play the Mets as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Cincinnati Reds as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games begin at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Miami Marlins are at home against the Washington Nationals as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Chicago Cubs play in Boston against the Red Sox as a -115 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 8.5. The Houston Astros battle the Colorado Rockies as the technical road team at the Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu in Mexico City, Mexico at 6:05 p.m. ET as a -218 money-line road favorite with a total of 17. The Detroit Tigers host the Kansas City Royals at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Tampa Bay Rays play in Chicago against the White Sox as a -238 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The New York Yankees are in Milwaukee to play the Brewers as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Cleveland Guardians at 7:20 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The San Diego Padres are at home against the Philadelphia Phillies at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Francisco Giants host the Pittsburgh Pirates at 9:05 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Angels play at home against the Minnesota Twins at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners are at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks on FS1 at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5.Matchweek 35 of the English Premier League begins with seven matches. Liverpool visits West Ham United on the USA Network at 7:30 a.m. ET as a -1 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Four EPL matches start at 10:00 a.m. ET. Fulham hosts Crystal Palace as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Manchester United plays at home against Burnley as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Newcastle United is at home against Sheffield United as a -2 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Wolverhampton hosts Luton Town on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Brentford plays at Everton on NBC at 12:30 p.m. ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. Aston Villa plays at Chelsea at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

Five MLB Teams Set To Regress

After a month of the Major League Baseball season, I wanted to take a look at five teams that I think could be good to fade soon because I expect regression.  Kansas City Royals (16-10 Record) The Royals are much better than last year, there is no denying that fact. However, they are 12-5 at home this year and just 4-5 on the road. They are going to have to play on the road quite a bit in the coming weeks. This is a young team and they are going to have some struggles at times. The Royals pitching staff is fourth in the majors in ERA so far this year. That will come down to earth in time. They are 4th in the majors in ERA and 27th in SIERA.  Chicago Cubs (16-9 Record) The Cubs are off to a red hot start. They had a season win total of 83.5, so they were expected to be right around .500. I expect the Cubs to top that season win total, but I think they have too many holes to continue at this pace. The bullpen is still a question mark. The offense is good, but are they as good as they have played thus far? The Cubs are also a public team, so the prices here could get out of control in a hurry. Cleveland Guardians (18-7 Record) I think the Cleveland Guardians are a solid team. They have a lot of upside potential with their bullpen being elite. Still, I think they will regress toward the mean. The Guardians have played the easiest schedule in baseball so far this season. Cleveland has been weak against left handed pitching in the last few years. So far this year, Cleveland is third in weighted on base average against lefties. This has been helped by a really high .341 batting average on balls in play. Cleveland is a good team, but not 18-7 good.  Oakland Athletics (10-16 Record) How can can a team that is 10-16 be due for regression? Oakland had a season win total of 57.5 or so at most books before the season. They have won 38.5% of their games so far this season. Oakland is playing in front of no one at home. At this point, I think them playing at home is a disadvantage if anything. The A’s will have a hard time staying motivated through this crazy season. I think they get worse. New York Yankees (17-9) The Yankees bullpen has a 2.86 ERA, but a 4.06 SIERA. They have won quite a few close games that could have gone either way. The Yankees have played a slightly easier schedule than the MLB average so far. That won’t continue since they play in the extremely competitive AL East. The Yankees are as public of a team as you’ll find and with this early success, their prices will be quite expensive. 

MLB’s Six Best Bullpens So Far - Are They Actually Good?

We are a month into the MLB season. It is getting far enough into the season now to look at season to date data and compare it to the advanced stats to see what units are actually as good as they appear. Let’s take a look at the top six bullpens in the majors by ERA this year. I’ll also list their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and SIERA (Skilled Interactive Earned Run Average). These are two solid predictive advanced statistics. We’ll take a look at the top six team by team.  Detroit Tigers (2.06 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 3.62 SIERA) The Tigers have easily the best bullpen ERA in the majors so far this year, but they are almost exactly middle of the pack in FIP and SIERA. I think Detroit’s bullpen has enough depth that they are better than league average, but they aren’t going to be able to keep up their amazing start either. The Tigers have allowed a batting average on balls in play of only .214, which is not sustainable. Cleveland Guardians (2.24 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.85 SIERA) Cleveland is first in both FIP and SIERA, so the advanced statistics are loving this Cleveland bullpen. There are no major signs of regression for Cleveland. Their batting average on balls in play allowed is .274. This Guardians bullpen is legitimately excellent! Clase is dominant and Gaddis has stepped up and been really good this year too.  Seattle Mariners (2.58 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 3.33 SIERA) A low .241 batting average on balls in play suggests some regression is coming for this group. They have also stranded 80% of runners on base. The Mariners bullpen walks too many guys to remain this elite. Speier is very good, but opponents won’t continue hitting only .143 against him.  Minnesota Twins (2.72 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 2.76 SIERA) Minnesota is a top five bullpen according to all the advanced statistics. It has helped them that they have played a relatively easy schedule, but I do think the Twins bullpen is very good. They have a bunch of guys with excellent swing and miss stuff. A consistently good unit! Milwaukee Brewers (2.85 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 3.4 SIERA) Opponents have only a .239 batting average on balls in play which suggests regression to the mean could be coming. However, the Brewers Devin Williams is expected back around the All Star Break, and he is clearly their best relief pitcher. In the interim, the Brewers bullpen likely comes back down to earth. Later in the season, I think they’ll be elite again. New York Yankees (2.86 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 4.06 SIERA) The Yankees bullpen is a decent one. Clay Holmes is an elite reliever. The problem I have with the Yankees bullpen is their depth isn’t great. I don’t trust Luke Weaver to be good on a consistent basis. Victor Gonzalez has a 2.89 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. This bullpen is overrated right now.

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