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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/29/24

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with four games. The Boston Celtics travel to Miami to play the Heat on TNT at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 10.5-point road favorite with the total set at 203 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Oklahoma City Thunder play in New Orleans against the Pelicans on NBA TV as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 204.5. The Denver Nuggets host the Los Angeles Lakers on TNT at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 217.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games. The Florida Panthers play at home against the Tampa Bay Lightning on ESPN at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Dallas Stars are in Vegas to play the Golden Knights on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Monday card in Major League Baseball has 12 games on its schedule. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the New York Yankees at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The St. Louis Cardinals visit Detroit to play the Tigers as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the Kansas City Royals at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Mets are at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -127 money-line favorite at BetOnline with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Brewers host the Tampa Bay Rays as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins play in Chicago against the White Sox on FS1 at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Twins send out Joe Ryan as their starting pitcher to go against the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet. Minnesota is a -166 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are in Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Four games conclude the MLB card at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves travel to Seattle to play the Mariners as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Arizona against the Diamondbacks as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Oakland to play the A’s as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Cincinnati Reds visit San Diego to play the Padres with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite with a total of 8.

UFC 301 Preview and Picks

Pantoja vs. Erceg will take place on May 4, 2024, at the Farmasi Arena, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It may not be as star-studded as UFC 300 but it promises to still be an exciting event. Let's take a closer look at this week's two biggest matches. The Main EventPantoja -205Erceg +170Total: 3.5 over -125 Flyweight champion Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja has won five straight fights and is 27-5 for his career. Steve "Astro Boy" Erceg is off 11 straight victories and is 12-1 for his career, 3-0 in the UFC. Erceg's record is certainly impressive but he hasn't been fighting top level competition. With recent wins against Royval (twice) and Moreno, Pantoja has been taking on some of the best in the division. This will be his second title defense. Pantoja is from Brazil. So, this fight is in his own backyard. Erceg is from Australia. While he recently delivered an impressive knockout, many are questioning how the relatively unknown Erceg, the #10 contender, even got a title shot. Pantoja is extremely tough and he's a great grappler. However, Erceg may have the advantage when the fighters are on their feet. Erceg had this to say: "Yeah, I just think I'm going to pick him apart. That being said, it’s not like I'm going to be able to stay on the outside the whole time. I fully expect him to find ways to get to the grappling, that sort of thing. But I’m no chump there. I’m also a black belt. Before people started calling me a knockout guy cause I had one knockout I was a ‘grappler’ in the UFC so I’m fully confident in my skills on the ground and in the grapple and I think I separate myself with the striking technique."Prediction: Pantoja's grappling and his experience probably tip the scales in his favor. Erceg seems to be the real deal though and an upset wouldn't totally surprise. I'm not touching this one but am excited to watch what should be an exciting and closer than expected battle. The Co-Main Event Jonathan Martinez-162Jose Aldo +136Total 2.5 over -315, under +230Jose "Junior" Aldo is in familiar territory. After all, the decorated veteran, making his return from a brief UFC retirement, is known as "The King of Rio." Aldo has had a few boxing matches since last fighting in the Octagon. Aldo (31-8) is a legend and has fought the best of the best. He's also 37 years old and his last UFC fight was a (decision) loss to Merab Dvalishvili in August 2022. Prior to that, he'd won three straight. However, those three victories were preceded by three straight losses. So, he's only 3-4 since a loss to Volkanovski  in May of 2019. Jonathan "Dragon" Martinez, 30 years old, has a 19-4 record. Off six straight victories, he hasn't lost a fight since March of 2021.  Known for being a leg kick specialist, Aldo will get a taste of his own medicine. Martinez is also known for his dangerous leg kicks. In fact, he's ended two of his last three fights by leg-kick TKO. Aldo was quoted as saying: “He’s a very tough opponent, and I think he has what, two wins by leg kicks? I’m a specialist at what I do, and you’re always going to face people that do the same thing that you do, but that’s what I’m known for, my leg kicks."Prediction: Aldo probably isn't what he used to be but beating the Brazllian legend on the scorecards in Rio won't be easy. Martinez knows a stoppage avoids worrying about the judges. At a huge underdog return, take a look at the under 2.5 rounds. 

April Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

April Starting Pitching AL Overachievers With most starters now making five starts in the 2024 season the data to work with is becoming a bit more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the first month of the season and these four American League starters may be worth avoiding in upcoming starting efforts.   Tyler Anderson – Los Angeles Angels Anderson had a terrific 2022 season with the Dodgers but his run across town with the Angels last season was disappointing. So far in 2024 Anderson has delivered a 1.78 ERA in his five starts but he has been an incredibly fortunate starter in the first month. Anderson has a .181 BABIP, more than 100 points below his carer average. He is on pace for his worst K/9 since the abbreviated 2020 season and his FIP of 4.87 towers over his ERA. Anderson started the season with 14 straight shutout innings but he will likely see his season line continue to get worse the more he pitches.  Bryce Miller – Seattle Mariners Miller had some success as a rookie with the Mariners last season posting a 4.32 ERA with a 3.98 FIP in 25 starts. His low walk rate was very appealing but so far in 2024 his BB/9 is nearly double last season’s rate. He has been lucky on balls in play this season with a .182 BABIP and in contrast to last season his FIP is 4.57 this season against his 2.22 ERA. Miller has been a much better pitcher at home in his career and 60% of his starts in 2024 so far have been at home. Miller has still allowed five home runs in five starts despite most of his innings being in a favorable venue in Seattle.  Brady Singer – Kansas City Royals A first round pick in 2018 and a team USA pitcher in the 2023 WBC, Singer is being counted on to be a key piece of the rotation for a rising Royals team. Singer had a 5.52 ERA last season with some tough luck results. This season things have gone his way with a 2.62 ERA but he has a 3.4 BB/9 and won’t likely maintain his current .209 BABIP and 86 percent strand rate. Singer has an over 57 percent groundball rate so far this season, which is well above his career average as well. His early season numbers are also built on four of six starts coming against struggling AL Central offenses, including two strong outings vs. the lowly White Sox.  Jose Berrios – Toronto Blue Jays Berrios had a 5.23 ERA in 2022 with the Blue Jays before turning things around for a respectable campaign last season. While Berrios has enjoyed some positive moments, his career numbers aren’t much better than the league average. So far this season his statistical snapshot is at an All-Star level with a 4-1 record and a 1.23 ERA in his conventional line, but his FIP is 3.84, only a bit below his career average of 4.04. Berrios has a career 1.2 HR/9 but so far in 2024 his HR/9 is just 0.7 and he is off to a great start even with the lowest K/9 of his career, at just 6.9. Three scoreless starts in April will keep the numbers low for Berrios for the foreseeable future but he is likely to gravitate towards near average results the rest of the way. 

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